Seattle’s Super Job

When I was younger, I used to practice football in my friend’s front yard with his dad. He’d throw, we’d catch and then, whichever one of us wasn’t the receiver, made a tackle. My friend’s dad became a fan of the phrase, “Impose your will!” when instructing me to tackle his son. It’s safe to say Seattle imposed their will on Sunday night.

For all the hype that surrounded this contest, from the first snap of the game it was clear there was only one winner. That safety, which sailed over Peyton Manning’s oblivious, Omaha-filled head, was two points, literally and metaphorically. One, the snap itself was symbolic of how the game would go: a routine task – usually completed with ease – but embarrassingly mishandled to the point of incredulity and, oh, two: giving up points, a lot of them.

Other than that one moment of painful incompetence for Denver, no spectator can say that Denver beat themselves – that takes away from the brilliant spectacle that was the Seattle Seahawks defense on Sunday night.

Led by Malcolm Smith’s Super Bowl MVP-worthy performance, they limited Peyton Manning to 280 yards – he averaged 343 yards per game during the season. Malcolm Smith had 10 tackles (four on third down to stop a conversion), forced a fumble, and had a 69-yard INT return touchdown. Kam Chancellor repeatedly deked out Manning in coverage, making him believe he would follow the crossing route only until the final moment that he pounced the other way, forcing an incompletion.

The Seahawks defense, who dubbed themselves the “Legion of Boom,” had the relentlessness of a legion and their hits certainly made a crack, if not a boom. They forced four turnovers and demolished what was termed “the greatest offense in the history of the NFL.” A demolishing serves a disservice: they limited a team that scored 38 points per game in the regular season to eight. EIGHT. They limited a team that averaged 136.8 yards rushing all season to 26 on seven rushes. TWENTY SIX. Peyton Manning’s total Quarterback Rating (QBR) this season was 115.7. The Super Bowl? 72.1 That’s a near-40% drop. The Seahawks secondary won the knock-down, drag-out battle.

The Seattle defense didn’t stop at the decimation of just the Denver Broncos; they went for Peyton’s legacy. The Seattle Seahawks let Manning break a few more records this season, his 34 completions and Demaryius Thomas’s 13 catches, but, like his regular season stats, they’re empty and hollow. They mean nothing because he couldn’t win when it mattered. His inability to succeed in crunch-time is crippling. The only thing football teams care about is winning and that meaningless stats will not change a game that was 36-0 until the final play of the third quarter. Peyton won’t be remembered for 55 passing touchdowns and 5,477 yards (both all-time records) because this Super Bowl choke will overshadow all of it. His 11-12 career postseason record will be the one stat people will fixate on. Fans don’t love you for records, they love you for victories.

“I’ll never use that word,” Peyton Manning said. He was referring to the media question of, “Is this embarrassing for you?” Peyton went on to agree: you can take nothing from Seattle’s defense like they took the ball from Denver. Seattle’s defense shut down Denver like the lights at the Super Dome last year. Peyton’s generosity of giving the ball to the other team was not lost upon Seattle and Richard Sherman even said a nice word this week when he called Peyton, “the classiest player/person he’s ever met” on Twitter because Manning asked Sherman about his ankle right after the game ended.

Manning ended the game just as he started, with his helmet on. If this were a novel, that would be symbolism. Peyton didn’t want anyone to see his face; he hid behind the facemask – the only one of the eight captains to keep his helmet on during the coin toss. Perhaps he wanted to go into the game and be on offense and wanted to remain ready, or maybe he tried to mask his disappoint. And Manning was disappointed. For a man coming off four neck surgeries, this was his most talented team he has ever played with and he royally disappointed the city of Denver, as well as himself. In fact, with this showing, Tom Brady and Joe Montana and ole Jonny Unitas distance themselves from him in “the greatest Quarterback of all-time discussion.” That performance hurt his stock, rather than aid it like many prognosticated.

No one predicted the ultimate beat-down that Seattle would instill upon Denver – not even the Broncos themselves. Neither did Vegas – the Broncos were 2.5-point favorites.

The Seattle Seahawks went out Sunday night unconcerned with numbers, or facts, or figures. They did what they knew how to do: play defense and win games. Oh, and impose their will.

 

Does Defense Still Win Championships?

To win a game of any kind, you need to score more points than the opposition.

Seems simple, right?

It’s a lot more complicated than that. This Super Bowl, between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks is more than a clash of opponents: it’s a war of ideologies.

Imagine two boxers, circling one another in the ring. It’s Mike Tyson, fists of fury, blazing on the offensive against Muhammed Ali, who’s letting him pound on his forearms, which shield his face. While Denver attempts to scorch Seattle, the Seahawks will attempt a rope-a-dope strategy, hoping to contain them on the defensive long enough to quash dreams with a fiery offensive.

Going into this game, there’s one question that needs answering: has your Grandpa’s mantra that “defense wins championships” held up over time or has it gone the way of the rotary telephone?

To first examine this quandary, there’s one simple analytic: win-loss records against top-rated teams on both sides of the ball in the Big Game. The best defense in the league has trumped the best offense three of the four times.

Those results are skewed, however, because the league has become much more pass-oriented, rather offense-oriented, with rule changes in the past decade. Regardless, the one rule that hasn’t changed is that the team that scores the most points wins. Denver has the offensive firepower to put up Techmo Bowl numbers, and Seattle needs to learn from New England’s futility last week.

New England struggled at getting Peyton Manning off the field. In fact, only two of the eight drives the Broncos had ended without points – a punt on the first drive and a victory kneel-down on the final.  Peyton and the Broncos controlled the game from the outset. The key to beating Peyton for Seattle is keeping him on the sideline and out of the game. For Denver’s defense, they need to clog running lanes because Marshawn Lynch and the fourth-ranked Seahawks rush offense will chew clock and make Manning pass – Seattle’s defensive focal point.

Each team enters with a larger piece of stone than chips on their shoulder. For Denver, it’s the debilitated defense. Rahim Moore, Safety, has a blood disorder and most likely won’t play; Brian Vickerson, Defensive Tackle and best Denver pass rusher, was sent down for the year with a hip; Derek Wolfe, top Denver D-Lineman, was forced off the field by repeated seizures. All-Pro Linebacker Von Miller tore his ACL and their best Corner, Chris Harris, did the same. The defense looks like a patchwork quilt while the first team is at the hospital. (A hospital! What is it?!) For Seattle, it’s that their defense hasn’t played a tougher team than one-dimensional New Orleans (at home) all year and the average ranking of their opponents pass game is 23^rd.

The game boils down to who will control the ball (and therefore the game) entering Sunday. There are three ways for each side to control the ball from a defensive standpoint.

First, there is forcing a team off the field on third down. Getting the defense off the field keeps them rested, gives the offense more touches – therefore, more opportunities to score – and will turn a Touchdown into a Field Goal. In a game where each point matters a great deal, that four-point swing turns out to be huge. Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense are just about equal on conversion rates. Denver’s juggernaut offense, however, gets a fresh set of downs about 46.3% of the time – second-best in the league. Seattle forces a 4^th down 35.5% of the time – tenth in the league. This makes for an interesting matchup.

This actually brings up a point I found interesting that debated about with a friend. It was suggested that there may be a correlation between third-down efficiency and Super Bowl titles. In fact, there is – just not the way one would suspect. Seven of the last eleven champions have been worse than their counterparts at defending the third down play. That includes the 29-17 romp in 2007 by the Indianapolis Colts (the second-worst team at 3^rd-down) against the Chicago Bears (the second-best). That doesn’t necessarily contradict the thesis that defense doesn’t win championships, just third down defense clearly does not.

Sometimes failing to convert on third down isn’t a killer – especially if the drive has taken upwards of five minutes and chewed 50 yards or so. That’s the thing – holding onto the ball. Time of possession is critical in winning. The Denver Broncos seemed to suffocate the Patriots offense last week, clearly removing Hall of Fame-lock Tom Brady from his rhythm. It seems the offense controls the time, but not so: what the defense does to get them off the field is what really matters. The Broncos held the ball for 35:44, or ten minutes longer than the Patriots. That bodes well for Denver as winners of the Super Bowl have had an average of 4:51 advantage in time of possession since 2000, and are 10-3 in those games. Therefore, it’s up to the defense to get the offense off the field, by any means possible.

One of those means could be the takeaway. Manning is famous for taking care of the ball and reading defenses, so this means a chess match could turn into a full-blown Mensa brawl when these two teams meet up on Sunday. Can Seattle’s defense with the big bad Secondary, which nicknamed itself “Legion of Boom,” take it away from Manning? He threw 15 INTs this year (nearly one per game) and the Seahawks had 28 interceptions this season. The Seahawks giveaway-takeaway margin is the highest in the league at 20 – the Denver Broncos? Even. If the Seahawks defense can force one turnover, they have proven that they can take care of the ball well enough to win the possession battle and grind-out a win.

The win, no matter which side captures the victory, will be ground it. It will be hard fought and won in the trenches. With the physicality of the Seattle secondary, many wonder if they will be penalized downfield for a Pass Interference call, which would give Denver a free, huge chunk of yardage. Not to fear, Space Needle! 8 of the past 12 Super Bowl winners have been flagged for more penalty yards than their opponents, which bodes well for the Seahawks.

An interesting stat: According to ESPN, since 2006, Super Bowl offenses that faced a loaded box (7 or more men) on 20% or more snaps are 5-1. So this means neither team wants to rush too many men, leaving them vulnerable in the passing lanes. Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated wrote a great column on the Seattle defense matching up with Peyton. He said, “Often used in concert with blitzes, man coverage is also the best antidote for a spread offense, and because it requires no pre-snap organizing, it’s the optimal way to stop the hurry-up” – which Denver loves to do.

As far as Denver’s ailing defense goes, it appears they won’t be tested too strenuously. Four of the five Seattle Wideouts were undrafted coming into the league. The only one that wasn’t? Percy Harvin, who played 17 snaps this year, dealing with injury. No Wide receiver caught more than 64 balls and, as a unit, they had 141 catches. Five INDIVIDUALS had 100+ this season. They just do not throw the ball, which leaves Denver to concentrate on stuffing Marshawn Lynch.

So when it comes down to kickoff for the two brilliant coaches – Mensa Mania Mayhem (coining that now) – it’ll be up to the Defensive Coordinators to control the flow and set their offense up in the best position to win.

Because ladies and gentleman, some things haven’t changed since your Grandpa’s heyday, defense still wins championships.

More Than the Score: A Battle of Legacies

This coming Sunday night, the best made-for-TV movie of the year will premiere. Brady-Manning XV may seem like the same number of Rocky films, but with greater dramatics and more serious implications.

The Manning-led Denver Broncos (14-3) will play host to Brady’s New England Patriots (13-4). This year has been a disparate one for both teams as Brady’s recent success was mired by the loss of the top-seven pass-catchers from the year previous, whether to free-agency, retirement, or prison. Much has been made about the dysfunction for the Patriots and the arsenal of weaponry that Manning has on the vertical attack.

The only time they have played this season, Peyton Manning’s Broncos jumped out to a 24-0 lead at halftime. However, a fumbled punt by Wes Welker in Overtime led to a Stephen Gostkowski Field Goal for the 34-31 win. The New England Patriots saved the game and that has now set-up possibly the most hyped, non-Super Bowl game in history.

There are two overarching storylines here.

First, it’s the battle of legacies between Manning and Brady.

This season, with Manning setting an array of team and NFL records, he has no reason to lose in the postseason. His 7-9 career record in January and on is the main argument against his greatness. In years previous however, with that sub-.500 record, he has had the fact that Indianapolis did not give him a great defense to fall back on. But this season, with the best offense in NFL history and a decent defense, this test against Brady will test the conception that Manning is a good regular season Quarterback who cannot win when it matters most. Since it will be mid-January in Denver, it will definitely be cold, possibly below freezing. Much has been made of Manning’s struggle there, as well. His comment that people who believe that theory can, “Stick it where the sun don’t sun,” certainly became more poignant after he didn’t play well in the Nov. 30 Patriots game. If Manning loses this game, his legacy will be forever tarnished by an inability to win with the most prolific weapons. If he wins, it would dramatically further the argument that Manning sits ahead of Brady in the best Quarterback ever discussion.

As talent surrounding Manning seems on an uptick, Brady’s company inversely goes downward. His production in this year’s offense has been nothing if not remarkable. He has seemingly willed his team to win on multiple occasions – including at home against New Orleans and staving off a late Atlanta run early in the season. Whether it’s fair or not, the emergence of the running game – and more specifically, LeGarette Blount – has reduced his role at times. With a former college Quarterback and a lesser version of a former Patriot star as the top two targets, a progressing rushing attack has opened the offense and allowed Brady to do interesting things out of play action. Kenbrell Thompkins and his ability to get behind defenders (as evidenced last Sunday) has been the primary beneficiary. Brady’s legacy will be solidified as the best ever if he wins Sunday and makes his sixth Super Bowl appearance since 2000. Winning it would catapult him into territory behest unknown: a Quarterback who transcends the game.

Lose and Brady will have a tag attached which purports that Brady cannot win without a defense, like he had in 2001, 2003 and 2004. This year, with names like Spikes, Mayo, Wilfork, and Kelly all going down (and Talib spending time hurt) Brady has maybe his least-complete defense ever.

So for these two legends at Quarterback, this game means a lot more than the final score. This could redefine legacies.

The Rookie Revolution

Starting Rookie Quarterbacks are rare. It’s even rarer that they succeed. It’s even rarer still that the signal-callers are well-enough transitioned to the NFL pace to help their teams succeed – to the point of the postseason.

Now considered a lock for the Hall of Fame, Peyton Manning started his career in 1998 with the Indianapolis Colts who went a dismal 3-13 that year and finished fifth when they were still in the AFC East. While Manning played adequately, he could not propel his team to any contention for postseason play.

What I’m getting at is that not every starting Rookie Quarterback is successful in their first year, but they could become successful later in their career. However, there are some busts, even at number one overall; most notably JaMarcus Russell out of LSU for the Raiders and the 1999 Browns pick of Tim Couch.

To have one superstar, franchise Quarterback out of the draft and make an impact their Rookie year is unusual, but to have four…it’s unheard of and it’s historic.

The other facet of these Rookies game is mobility. Unlike in years past with Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Pat White, the Quarterbacks of today were runners as a second option. However, they do it well. All four Quarterbacks are more than adept at passing from the pocket, but the group can also scramble and make the indispensable contributions of extending a play and getting into the open field. The big-play possibility is a major addition to their squads.

This year, the Rookies broke the mold. Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts, Robert Griffin III in the nation’s capital for the Redskins, Russell Wilson on the West Coast for the Seahawks, and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco led the way in this Rookie Revolution. A disclaimer: Kaepernick was drafted in 2011, but threw five passes that year and retained Rookie-eligibility to this year. All four are outplaying former number one picks that received bigger paychecks before they stepped foot on NFL turf. All four were superior to former number one picks who now have more experience in Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams.

This was true out in Indianapolis.

Andrew Luck broke rookie records with the most yards, mot attempts and tied the record for game-winning drives in the 4^th quarter or overtime with seven. This broke the previous rookie record held by Big Ben Roethlisberger (5). He also holds the most “wins” in a season by a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall. Luck is also more mobile than most give him credit for. He rushed for 255 yards and five touchdowns.

The man drafted directly behind him, RGIII, is not only a football player, but a brand. He is a spokesman for Adidas and for Subway; he boasts colorful socks and is a former Heisman trophy winner. The man is a winner on and off the field; affable and athletic, he is the light that Washington needed to revive football in DC. Washington certainly had high expectations after trading away three future first-rounder’s and a second-rounder to move up to the number two pick to the Rams. The Redskins, who have had four winning seasons since 1992, knew they needed an impact player. Griffin made an impact immediately. He had the third-highest Quarterback Rating in the NFL and was a leader.

Griffin also led all Quarterbacks in rushing with 833 yards, seven touchdowns and could move the chains with 33 first downs. To put those numbers into perspective, he ran for more yards than a third of the starting running-backs in the NFL. He ran for more yards than men who were paid to run – and solely run – for 10 other NFL teams.

However, with his ACL and LCL tear, it will remain to be seen how Griffin responds. The thing is though, is that if Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings is any model – Griffin should suffer not set-backs.

The success of these four new Quarterbacks goes beyond any mere statistic and further than numbers.

It goes to the franchises. Before the season began, no one (who has any honesty), was picking the Washington Redskins or Indianapolis Colts to go to the playoffs – much less to have pegged Russell Wilson as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks. What makes Wilson’s promotion to first-string more surprising is that Seattle had just signed free-agent Matt Flynn, the former Packer, to a contract worth $26 million and $10 million guaranteed.

Russell Wilson – a third-round selection – not only captured the starting job, but he was appointed the captain by his teammates. To be a part of a squad with established veterans as Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice and to be voted to the captaincy cannot be understated. And he earned it; Wilson’s year was phenomenal. His 100.0 Quarterback Rating (QBR) and 64.1 completion percentage was fourth and eighth respectively in the NFL ahead of names such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in both categories. Wilson also threw fewer interceptions than Peyton Manning – just to show the company Wilson is keeping.

One of those men who outplayed the former number-one picks was a Utah Ute drafted in the second-round and 36^th overall.

Though he was drafted in 2011, Colin Kaepernick threw only five passes that season and was still Rookie-eligible this year. When incumbent Starter Alex Smith suffered a concussion against the St. Louis Rams in week 10, the former Utah Ute got the nod. He did not squander that opportunity as Kaepernick led the 49ers to a 5-2-1 record.

Kaepernick’s tremendous arm was not the only positive facet of his game. He can run, a 4.53 40-yard time, and can make big throws. On his debut on Monday night against the Chicago Bears, he made a throw from the left hash towards the opposite side of the field which fell just over the Cornerbacks fingers and into the waiting arms of Kyle Williams, who beat Kelvin Hayden of the Bears for a long touchdown.

Kaepernick also ran for 417 yards and 5 touchdowns in half of the time that Griffin, Wilson, and Luck had.

What makes these Quarterbacks so special? They are poised. They feel no pressure. They know how to win.

What Luck did goes beyond the numbers and the fact that he turned the Colts, 2-14 a season ago, into an 11-5 playoff team is worthy of merit by itself. He led them to the playoffs and though they lost to Baltimore, there is hope in the 23-year old Luck and the young Colts roster.

Griffin made a statement early in Washington and showed he knew how to pull-out a victory. He started his year by defeating an NFC powerhouse in the New Orleans Saints and then took Washington on a season-long ride that concluded with a seven-game win streak, beating the Cowboys and Eagles twice, defeating the reigning NFC Champion Giants and capturing the team’s first NFC East title in 13 years.

Russell Wilson was a winner from day one as he wrested control of the starting job and never relinquished it by playing up to the highest standard. Under the steady and guiding hand of Wilson, the Seahawks had an 11-5 record and made the playoffs for the first time for the first time since 2007. Wilson defeated his Rookie counterpart in RGIII in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and advanced to the Divisional Round to play the Atlanta Falcons.

Down 20-0 at halftime, Wilson brought Seattle all the way back and with under a minute left, the Seahawks had the lead, 28-27, with under a minute to play. Wilson would have had another win and still be playing football if it wasn’t for Seattle Head Coach Pete Carroll out-thinking himself and attempting to ice Atlanta’s kicker.

Colin Kaepernick has been just as clutch as Matt Bryant (on the second attempt) throughout the season. His victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football came after his 31-3 lead was erased and a 31-31 impasse came midway through the fourth-quarter. Kaepernick then hit Michael Crabtree for the go-ahead touchdown and the lead, which was a landmark win for San Francisco.

He has also been clutch in the playoffs and has given an arm and legs to propel the 49ers through the playoffs. Kaepernick outplayed veteran and NFL MVP, Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers in a 45-31 drubbing of the favorites to win the NFC. Kaepernick was historic in the game, rushing for 181 (an NFL record for QBs) and two touchdowns, while throwing for 263 yards.

In an unprecedented combination of skill and poise, Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin and Luck have really led the first Rookie Revolution.

While it’s unclear why four starting Rookie Quarterbacks have stepped into the bright-lights and been unfazed by the game’s biggest stages this year, it will certainly be fun for NFL fans for years to come if they keep the pace they are at now.

While the futures the first-years are unclear, one thing is certain; the Rookie Revolution is here to stay.